September 15, 2023 - WorldOra Carbon News
As EV demand rises, here's what the future holds for gas cars 09/14/23 Elektrek
RMI, who worked in partnership with the Bezos Earth Fund, writes in a report released today called “X-change: Cars, The end of the ICE age” that the market share of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars is going to fall to a level of 14-38% of sales by 2030.
RMI says that gas car sales peaked in 2017 and have been falling at 5% a year since then. By the end of this decade, gas car sales will fall to between 14 million and 38 million cars a year.
RMI gives the example that in 2022, there were sales of 64 million gas cars and scrappage of 42 million. So the net growth was 22 million. But by 2025, more gas cars will be scrapped than sold, meaning the overall fleet of gas cars will peak that year, and then will be in freefall by 2030. RMI’s research shows that by 2030, the gas fleet is likely to be falling at a rate of 40 to 70 million per year, or 3-7%.
And, the researchers say, since gas cars account for around 25% of global oil demand (and made up more than 33% of oil demand growth between 2010 and 2019), demand for oil is also going to freefall in the future, thanks to EV adoption and efficiency.
And here’s the exciting bombshell from this report: By the 2040s, RMI says that the oil demand from the car sector will fall to zero.
RMI Report on ICE cars diminishing The rapid growth in EVs means peak oil demand for cars is behind us. Global oil demand for cars peaked in 2019 and is currently on a typical plateau, squeezed between efficiency gains and the growth of EVs. By 2030 oil demand for cars will be falling at over 1 million barrels per day (mbpd) every year and the endgame for one-quarter of global oil demand will be in sight.
Rapid production growth of batteries for cars is sparking the lower costs and higher energy density needed to drive change across the rest of the transport sector, from two-wheelers in the Global South to heavy trucking in China and the US.
Federal Legislation and Regulations- Below you’ll find brief descriptions of federal legislation and regulations as well as links to external resources.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)
The passage of the IRA in 2022 signaled a turning point in EV adoption by providing incentives for passenger and commercial vehicles, domestic battery production, and charging infrastructure development. In RMI’s report How Policy Actions Can Spur EV Adoption in the United States, stakeholders can learn what they can do to realize the IRA’s full potential. The report provides the analysis they need to make data-informed decisions and details the challenges facing IRA implementation as well as ways forward.
Who must comply: The IRA is not a regulation, but an incentive, so no one needs to comply. The IRA provides incentives for the procurement of new and used EVs. Qualifying individuals and commercial entities can use tax credits when purchasing an eligible EV through the IRA.
This proposed regulation from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would reduce passenger car, light truck, and MD vehicle emissions of CO2, hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter. Between 2027 and 2055, the proposed standards would cumulatively reduce vehicle emissions by 8,000 billion metric tons of CO2. In 2055, the proposal would reduce harmful air pollutants, including approximately 9,800 tons of particulate matter, 44,000 tons of nitrogen oxides, and 200,000 tons of volatile organic compounds, compared to 2055 levels without the proposal.
The proposed light-duty vehicle standards are projected to result in an industry-wide average target for the light-duty fleet of 82 grams/mile of CO2 in model year (MY) 2032, representing a 51 percent reduction in projected fleet average greenhouse gas emissions target levels from the existing MY 2026 standards. When fully phased in, the MD vehicle standards are projected to result in an average target of 275 grams/mile of CO2 by MY 2032, representing a reduction of 44 percent when compared to the current MY 2026 standards.
Who must comply: Light-duty and medium-duty vehicle manufacturers.
These proposed standards are more stringent and are intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from HD vehicles beginning in MY 2027.
According to the EPA’s website,
“The new standards would be applicable to HD vocational vehicles (such as delivery trucks, refuse haulers, public utility trucks, transit, shuttle, school buses, etc.) and tractors (such as day cabs and sleeper cabs on tractor-trailer trucks). Specifically, EPA is proposing stronger CO2 standards for MY 2027 HD vehicles that go beyond the current standards that apply under the HD Phase 2 Greenhouse Gas program. The EPA is also proposing an additional set of CO2 standards for HD vehicles that would begin to apply in MY 2028, with progressively lower standards each model year through 2032. This proposed ‘Phase 3’ greenhouse gas program maintains the flexible structure created in EPA’s Phase 2 greenhouse gas program, which is designed to reflect the diverse nature of the heavy-duty industry.”
Who must comply: Manufacturers of HD vocational vehicles (such as delivery trucks, refuse haulers, public utility trucks, transit, shuttle, school buses, etc.) and tractors (such as day cabs and sleeper cabs on tractor-trailer trucks).